Illinois Senate Race on Election Eve: Stratton Leads Tracy in the Only Two Polls as Voters Decide Dick Durbin's Successor

Illinois has not done this in sixteen years. Tuesday's election decides an open U.S. Senate seat for the first time since 2010, as Dick Durbin — in the Senate since 1997 — retires rather than seek a sixth term. The choice before voters is Democratic Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, Republican Don Tracy, the former chairman of the Illinois Republican Party, and Whitfield Harrington Jr., a Chicago pastor running with the American Center Party.

The public polling, such as it is, points one way. Only two polls were released during the general-election campaign: Public Policy Polling, conducted September 30 to October 1 for Chicago News Weekly, put Stratton ahead 49 percent to 36 percent with 15 percent undecided, and ActiVote's September-October survey put her ahead 58.5 percent to 41.5 percent. The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections all rate the race safely Democratic. Both major campaigns have identified affordability as the top issue, and in interview highlights aired by Illinois Public Media the three candidates split over the war in Iran, immigration enforcement and whether the Senate filibuster should survive — Tracy defending it, and arguing that Stratton and President Trump are aligned in wanting it abolished.

Stratton, lieutenant governor since 2019, won the March 17 Democratic primary with 40.4 percent over two Chicago-area congressmen, Raja Krishnamoorthi and Robin Kelly, carrying Gov. J.B. Pritzker's endorsement. Tracy won his primary the same day with 40 percent. Republicans have not won a Senate election in Illinois since 2010 — the last open-seat race — and Tuesday's count will show whether this one ever became the contest the polls said it was not.