Six Things to Watch on Election Day as Voters Decide Control of Congress
Tuesday's midterms decide who holds Congress for the last two years of President Donald Trump's term. Reuters' election-eve guide counts the six things that will tell the story — starting with a four-seat math problem in both chambers.
Americans head to the polls on Tuesday in midterm elections that will decide control of Congress for the final two years of President Donald Trump's term, Reuters reports in its election-eve guide to the six things worth watching. The results will serve as the first nationwide verdict on Trump's presidency, revealing whether voters want to check his power by giving Democrats control of one or both chambers, or are willing to accept the status quo despite frustrations over the cost of living and the war with Iran. Illinois voters play their part in that math at home, deciding an open U.S. Senate seat and the governor's race on the same ballot.
The arithmetic is tight in both chambers. Democrats need a net gain of four seats in the House and four in the Senate to overturn Republican majorities of 218-214 and 53-47, Reuters notes, and while Democrats are widely expected to reclaim the House, the Senate battle remains highly competitive — likely hinging on six to eight races, with Democrats needing to hold Michigan, pick up Maine, and flip seats in states Trump carried by double-digit margins in 2024, including Ohio, Iowa, Alaska and Texas. Early results from Republican-held House seats in Florida and Virginia could provide the first clues to the size of any Democratic gains.
The count itself is the second thing to watch. Election officials have warned that close races could spark disputes over voter eligibility, ballot counting and certification, and the Justice Department plans to deploy about 1,000 monitors nationwide on Election Day — roughly triple the number used in the last midterms — a move some local officials worry could intimidate voters, although the department says those fears are baseless, according to Reuters. Several states are also unlikely to produce complete results on election night, especially in close races.
Turnout, money and mood fill out the list. Opinion polls showed Democrats significantly more enthusiastic about voting heading into Election Day, though strategists caution that young, Black and Hispanic voters have historically turned out at lower rates in midterms. Republicans held a significant financial advantage — Trump spent more than $277 million, mostly through his MAGA Inc. super PAC, and Elon Musk spent roughly $366 million during the cycle, according to the Federal Election Commission data Reuters cites — while voters head to the polls in a sour economic mood, with high prices a key issue and many blaming Trump's tariffs and the Iran war for nagging inflation. How Trump himself responds to the results, especially if Republicans lose Congress, could become one of the night's biggest stories.
