Final Polls Give Pritzker a Lead of Roughly 20 Points Over Bailey in the Illinois Governor's Rematch
ActiVote puts the third-term bid at 58.7 to 41.3 and Public Policy Polling at 54 to 34, two days before Illinois voters decide the rematch of 2022 — with the governor telling a national audience Sunday that turnout energy is running high.
Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker goes into Election Day heavily favored to win a third term in his rematch with Republican Darren Bailey, according to the final polls published ahead of Tuesday's vote. The latest ActiVote survey, conducted Oct. 22, puts Pritzker ahead 58.7 percent to 41.3 percent, the Peoria Journal Star reported on Sunday, and Public Policy Polling's survey, posted Oct. 6, gives the Democratic incumbent a 20-point lead at 54 percent to 34 percent. The political website 270toWin averaged the two polls at 56.5 percent for Pritzker to 37.5 percent for Bailey, and the state and local government relations company MultiState rated the Illinois gubernatorial race 'Solid D.'
The shape of the race underneath the toplines is a familiar Illinois split. ActiVote reported that Pritzker holds 100 percent of voters identified as 'left' and 97 percent of the 'moderate left,' while Bailey has 89 percent support from the 'right' and 86 percent from the 'moderate right.' Among centrist voters, Pritzker holds a 72 percent to 28 percent advantage — the bloc that turns a lead into a rout if it holds on Tuesday. Readers should weigh the sources as the Journal Star itself flagged them: Media Bias/Fact Check gives ActiVote a 'least biased' rating and observes that Public Policy Polling leans slightly Democrat, and Ballotpedia describes Public Policy Polling as a Democratic public opinion research organization.
Pritzker spent part of the final Sunday on national television. He told NBC's Meet the Press that 'the energy on the ground, not just in Illinois but across the country, is very high,' pointing, as Barron's relayed the appearance, to what he described as an overperformance of Latino voters, young voters and Black voters. 'This is good for Democrats,' he said. The same Sunday coverage reported a new NBC News poll in which registered voters favored a Democratic-controlled Congress by 52 percent to 45 percent.
Polls are not results, and Bailey — who lost the 2022 meeting by double digits and has campaigned this year on affordability — gets his say from the electorate itself on Tuesday, when Illinois polls open at 6 a.m. and close at 7 p.m.
